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Fulham vs Middlesbrough 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)

Fair result
FulhamFulham

3–1

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
2.0Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Fulham would usually take 2.2 points and Middlesbrough 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Fulham.

Fulham +0.8 pts vs chancesMiddlesbrough −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fulham vs Middlesbrough stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Fulham had more than twice the shots on target

Fulham

Middlesbrough

9

Shots on target

3

3

Big chances

2

3

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

2

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Fulham and Middlesbrough ended 3-1. Our AI model predicted an Middlesbrough win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Fulham vs Middlesbrough — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Fulham to win.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 24%

Our track record

In 373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,952 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Fulham Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fulham 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Fulham 2+ goals.

Our model 67%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 79 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 50.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 65–70%.

Middlesbrough Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,009 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fulham vs Middlesbrough 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fulham vs Middlesbrough. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
FA Cup - England
FulhamFulham3
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough1

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

129%
X24%
247%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Fulham35%65%67%33%
Middlesbrough23%77%53%47%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Fulham87%13%96%4%
Middlesbrough78%22%91%9%

1st Half

125%
X39%
236%

1st Score

140%
X6%
254%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

1-1

17%

X-2

16%

X-X

13%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

1-2

9.4%

0-1

9.4%

0-2

7.3%

1-0

7.2%

2-1

6.6%

2-2

5.9%

0-0

5.7%

1-3

4.9%

2-0

4.2%

0-3

3.9%

2-3

3.4%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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