Manchester City vs Exeter City 10-1 Score & Prediction Review
FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)
Manchester City10–1
Exeter CityOn these chances Manchester City would usually take 2.1 points and Exeter City 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Manchester City.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Manchester City vs Exeter City stats: how the match was played
FA Cup
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Manchester City had more than twice the shots on target
Manchester City
Exeter City
10
Shots on target
2
4
Big chances
3
7
Corners
3
0
Yellow cards
1
73%
Possession
27%
Manchester City vs Exeter City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · FA Cup
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Manchester City to win
CorrectOur track record
In 326 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.4% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,106 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Manchester City ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).
Our model’s pick
Manchester City 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Exeter City 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,502 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.1% of the time (bookmakers said 80.5%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Manchester City vs Exeter City 10-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Manchester City vs Exeter City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Manchester City10
Exeter City1Winner
1 74%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
2-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Manchester City10Exeter City1Winner
1 74%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
2-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9% | 91% | 30% | 70% |
| 57% | 43% | 85% | 15% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 43% | 78% | 22% |
| 97% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
54%
X-1
19%
X-X
8%
2-2
5%
1-X
3%
X-2
3%
2-1
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
12.1%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.7%
1-1
7.4%
3-1
7.1%
2-2
3.9%
0-0
3.7%
3-2
3.4%
0-1
3.2%
1-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score