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Cambridge United vs Birmingham City 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)

Fair result
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United

2–3

Birmingham CityBirmingham City
1.1Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Cambridge United would usually take 1.5 points and Birmingham City 1.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Birmingham City.

Cambridge United −1.5 pts vs chancesBirmingham City +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cambridge United vs Birmingham City stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cambridge United

Birmingham City

5

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

1

2

Corners

0

1

Yellow cards

0

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Cambridge United and Birmingham City ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Cambridge United win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol Rovers – Cambridge United prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

Cambridge United vs Birmingham City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cambridge United to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Birmingham City to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 20%

Our track record

In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,745 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,110 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 81%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,294 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Cambridge United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cambridge United 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Birmingham City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Birmingham City 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,397 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cambridge United vs Birmingham City 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cambridge United vs Birmingham City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
FA Cup - England
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United2
Birmingham CityBirmingham City3

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

140%
X29%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT34%66%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cambridge United31%69%67%33%
Birmingham City38%62%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cambridge United88%12%96%4%
Birmingham City91%9%97%3%

1st Half

127%
X49%
224%

1st Score

149%
X11%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

18%

X-1

17%

2-2

16%

X-2

14%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-1

13.2%

1-0

13.1%

0-1

10.6%

0-0

10.6%

2-1

8.2%

2-0

7.0%

1-2

7.0%

0-2

5.6%

2-2

4.2%

3-0

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol Rovers – Cambridge United prediction & betting tips (Nov 7, 2026).

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