2. Leagues
  3. FA Cup
  4. Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare

Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)

Fair result
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town

3–2

Weston-super-MareWeston-super-Mare
2.0Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Grimsby Town would usually take 2.0 points and Weston-super-Mare 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Grimsby Town.

Grimsby Town +1.0 pts vs chancesWeston-super-Mare −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Grimsby Town

Weston-super-Mare

7

Shots on target

6

3

Big chances

1

10

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

1

67%

Possession

33%

The match between Grimsby Town and Weston-super-Mare ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Grimsby Town win with 57% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grimsby Town to win

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 1,811 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,354 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,987 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grimsby Town ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Grimsby Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grimsby Town 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,824 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Weston-super-Mare Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Weston-super-Mare 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 75%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 2,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Grimsby Town vs Weston-super-Mare. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
FA Cup - England
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town3
Weston-super-MareWeston-super-Mare2

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

157%
X23%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Grimsby Town18%82%46%54%
Weston-super-Mare44%56%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Grimsby Town71%29%88%12%
Weston-super-Mare91%9%97%3%

1st Half

144%
X40%
216%

1st Score

160%
X6%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

17%

X-X

15%

2-2

11%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

10.3%

1-1

10.3%

2-1

9.8%

2-0

9.1%

0-0

6.2%

3-0

6.1%

3-1

6.1%

0-1

5.3%

1-2

5.2%

2-2

5.0%

3-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores