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Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)

Fair result
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur

1–2

Aston VillaAston Villa
1.2Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Tottenham Hotspur would usually take 1.0 points and Aston Villa 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Tottenham Hotspur.

Tottenham Hotspur −1.0 pts vs chancesAston Villa +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Aston Villa had clearly more shots on target

Tottenham Hotspur

Aston Villa

5

Shots on target

8

0

Big chances

2

4

Corners

6

3

Yellow cards

2

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Tottenham Hotspur win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tottenham Hotspur to win

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 1,996 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Tottenham Hotspur Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tottenham Hotspur 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
FA Cup - England
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur1
Aston VillaAston Villa2

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

143%
X23%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Tottenham Hotspur25%75%56%44%
Aston Villa31%69%62%38%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Tottenham Hotspur80%20%92%8%
Aston Villa84%16%95%5%

1st Half

134%
X40%
226%

1st Score

150%
X5%
245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

20%

X-1

14%

X-2

14%

X-X

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.7%

2-1

9.1%

1-0

8.5%

1-2

8.3%

0-1

6.7%

2-0

5.8%

2-2

5.7%

0-2

5.3%

0-0

5.1%

3-1

4.5%

1-3

3.8%

3-0

3.7%

3-2

3.4%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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