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Derby County vs Leeds United

Derby County vs Leeds United 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)

Fair result

Derby County

1–3

Leeds United

0.6Chances (xG)2.4

On these chances Derby County would usually take 0.4 points and Leeds United 2.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Leeds United.

Derby County −0.4 pts vs chancesLeeds United +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Derby County vs Leeds United stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Leeds United had more than twice the shots on target

Derby County

Leeds United

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

34%

Possession

66%

The match between Derby County and Leeds United ended 1-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Leeds United win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.

Derby County vs Leeds United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leeds United to win

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,609 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,840 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Leeds United ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,222 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Derby County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derby County 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Leeds United Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leeds United 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Leeds United 2+ goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 358 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Derby County vs Leeds United 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Derby County vs Leeds United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

FA Cup - England

Derby County1

Leeds United3

Winner

X2 67%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

FA Cup - England

Derby County1

Leeds United3

Winner

X2 67%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

133%

X27%

241%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	65%	35%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	34%	66%	69%	31%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	29%	71%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	34%	66%	69%	31%
	29%	71%	63%	37%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

126%

X44%

230%

1st Score

143%

X8%

249%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

22%

1-1

18%

X-X

16%

X-2

16%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.8%

0-1

10.9%

1-0

10.0%

1-2

8.3%

0-0

8.3%

2-1

7.3%

0-2

7.1%

2-0

5.3%

2-2

4.7%

1-3

3.8%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score