Norwich City vs Walsall 5-1 Score & Prediction Review
FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)
Norwich City5–1
WalsallOn these chances Norwich City would usually take 2.8 points and Walsall 0.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Norwich City.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Norwich City vs Walsall stats: how the match was played
FA Cup
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Norwich City had more than twice the shots on target
Norwich City
Walsall
15
Shots on target
1
6
Big chances
0
10
Corners
3
0
Yellow cards
0
78%
Possession
22%
Norwich City vs Walsall — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · FA Cup
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Walsall to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Norwich City to win.
Our track record
In 1,510 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,108 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,816 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,647 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Norwich City ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,182 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Norwich City 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Norwich City 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 76 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 51.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 65–70%.
Our model’s pick
Walsall 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,236 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Norwich City vs Walsall 5-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Norwich City vs Walsall. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Norwich City5
Walsall1Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Norwich City5Walsall1Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| 31% | 69% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
2-2
19%
X-X
17%
X-2
15%
X-1
13%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.4%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.8%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.3%
1-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score