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Fulham vs Southampton 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 5th Round (Knock Out)

Fair result
FulhamFulham

0–1

SouthamptonSouthampton
2.1Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Fulham would usually take 1.7 points and Southampton 1.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Fulham.

Fulham −1.7 pts vs chancesSouthampton +1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fulham vs Southampton stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Fulham had more than twice the shots on target

Fulham

Southampton

6

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

4

15

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

3

68%

Possession

32%

The match between Fulham and Southampton ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Southampton win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Fulham vs Southampton — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Southampton to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fulham to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 19%

Our track record

In 1,046 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,254 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,343 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fulham ahead at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,182 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.

Fulham Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fulham 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fulham 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,000 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 55–60%.

Southampton Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Southampton 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fulham vs Southampton 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fulham vs Southampton. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
FA Cup - England
FulhamFulham0
SouthamptonSouthampton1

Winner

X2 64%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

136%
X24%
240%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%41%59%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Fulham29%71%59%41%
Southampton26%74%56%44%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Fulham82%18%94%6%
Southampton79%21%92%8%

1st Half

129%
X40%
230%

1st Score

145%
X5%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

20%

X-X

14%

X-2

14%

X-1

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.7%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

7.9%

0-1

7.4%

1-0

6.9%

2-2

6.4%

0-2

5.7%

2-0

4.9%

0-0

4.9%

1-3

4.5%

3-1

4.1%

2-3

3.3%

3-2

3.1%

0-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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