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Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

1. HNL - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

Dinamo Zagreb

2–1

Rijeka

1.9Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Dinamo Zagreb would usually take 2.5 points and Rijeka 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Dinamo Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb +0.5 pts vs chancesRijeka −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka stats: how the match was played

1. HNL

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Dinamo Zagreb had more than twice the shots on target

Dinamo Zagreb

Rijeka

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Dinamo Zagreb and Rijeka ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Dinamo Zagreb win with 47% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rijeka – Varaždin prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 1. HNL

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb to win

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,542 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.2% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,762 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,185 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,002 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Dinamo Zagreb ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,300 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Dinamo Zagreb Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,900 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Rijeka Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rijeka 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,330 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

1. HNL - Croatia

Dinamo Zagreb2

Rijeka1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

1. HNL - Croatia

Dinamo Zagreb2

Rijeka1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

147%

X27%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	23%	77%	46%	54%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	23%	77%	46%	54%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	53%	47%	78%	22%	91%	9%
	36%	64%	68%	32%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	53%	47%
	36%	64%	68%	32%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	78%	22%	91%	9%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

136%

X40%

224%

1st Score

153%

X6%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-X

16%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-0

10.0%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

7.1%

2-2

6.5%

1-2

6.5%

0-1

6.5%

0-0

6.4%

3-1

4.7%

3-0

4.4%

0-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka — Recent Form

Dinamo Zagreb have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Rijeka have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Dinamo Zagreb

Rijeka

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Dinamo Zagreb

3/5

Rijeka

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Dinamo Zagreb

3/5

Rijeka

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Dinamo Zagreb

4/5

Rijeka

5/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Dinamo Zagreb

2/5

Rijeka

4/5

First Half Result

Dinamo Zagreb

3/5

Rijeka

3/5

Correct Score

Dinamo Zagreb

0/5

Rijeka

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rijeka – Varaždin prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).