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  4. Varaždin vs Vukovar

Varaždin vs Vukovar 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

1. HNL - Season 2025/2026 (Round 26)

Fair result
VaraždinVaraždin

2–0

VukovarVukovar
2.3Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Varaždin would usually take 2.2 points and Vukovar 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Varaždin.

Varaždin +0.8 pts vs chancesVukovar −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Varaždin vs Vukovar stats: how the match was played

1. HNL

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Varaždin had more than twice the shots on target

Varaždin

Vukovar

6

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

1

6

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

2

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Varaždin and Vukovar ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Varaždin win with 44% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Varaždin – Slaven Koprivnica prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Varaždin vs Vukovar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 1. HNL

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Varaždin to win

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Varaždin Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Varaždin 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Vukovar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vukovar 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Varaždin vs Vukovar 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Varaždin vs Vukovar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
1. HNL - Croatia
VaraždinVaraždin2
VukovarVukovar0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

144%
X27%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Varaždin26%74%59%41%
Vukovar37%63%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Varaždin84%17%94%6%
Vukovar91%9%98%3%

1st Half

133%
X43%
223%

1st Score

151%
X8%
241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

17%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.7%

1-0

11.3%

2-1

9.5%

0-1

8.6%

0-0

8.5%

2-0

7.8%

1-2

7.2%

2-2

5.1%

0-2

4.3%

3-1

4.0%

3-0

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Varaždin – Slaven Koprivnica prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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