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Real Sociedad vs Sevilla

Real Sociedad vs Sevilla 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result

Real Sociedad

2–1

Sevilla

1.9Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Real Sociedad would usually take 2.1 points and Sevilla 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Real Sociedad.

Real Sociedad +0.9 pts vs chancesSevilla −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Real Sociedad vs Sevilla stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Real Sociedad had clearly more shots on target

Real Sociedad

Sevilla

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Real Sociedad and Sevilla ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Real Sociedad win with 50% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Real Sociedad – Levante prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Real Sociedad vs Sevilla — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Sociedad to win

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,734 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 807 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 1,718 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Real Sociedad ahead at half-time.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,245 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Real Sociedad Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Sociedad 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Real Sociedad 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Sevilla Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sevilla 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Real Sociedad vs Sevilla 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Real Sociedad vs Sevilla. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Real Sociedad2

Sevilla1

Winner

1X 77%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Real Sociedad2

Sevilla1

Winner

1X 77%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

150%

X27%

223%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	33%	67%	59%	41%	70%	30%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	33%	67%	59%	41%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	44%	56%	79%	21%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%
	44%	56%	79%	21%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

139%

X45%

217%

1st Score

162%

X10%

229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

19%

X-X

17%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.6%

1-1

12.7%

2-0

10.2%

0-0

9.8%

2-1

9.2%

0-1

8.5%

1-2

5.6%

3-0

4.4%

3-1

4.1%

2-2

4.1%

0-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Real Sociedad – Levante prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).