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Real Madrid vs Athletic Club

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result

Real Madrid

1–1

Athletic Club

1.5Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Real Madrid would usually take 1.2 points and Athletic Club 1.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Real Madrid.

Real Madrid −0.2 pts vs chancesAthletic Club −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Athletic Club had more than twice the shots on target

Real Madrid

Athletic Club

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Real Madrid and Athletic Club ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Real Madrid win at 57% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Athletic Club – Getafe prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid to win

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 1,811 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Real Madrid ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,245 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Real Madrid Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,824 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Athletic Club Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Athletic Club 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Real Madrid vs Athletic Club. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Real Madrid1

Athletic Club1

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Real Madrid1

Athletic Club1

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

157%

X23%

219%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	48%	52%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	48%	52%	79%	21%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	48%	52%
	48%	52%	79%	21%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

139%

X40%

220%

1st Score

157%

X7%

236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

18%

X-X

15%

2-2

11%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.7%

2-0

11.4%

1-1

10.8%

2-1

9.5%

0-0

7.3%

0-1

5.7%

3-0

5.7%

3-1

5.4%

1-2

4.7%

2-2

4.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Athletic Club – Getafe prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).