Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid 2-2 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)
Villarreal drew despite more chances
Villarreal2–2
Atlético MadridOn these chances Villarreal would usually take 2.2 points and Atlético Madrid 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Madrid.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Villarreal had more than twice the shots on target
Villarreal
Atlético Madrid
7
Shots on target
3
1
Big chances
1
12
Corners
1
3
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
66%
Possession
34%
Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Villarreal to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atlético Madrid to win.
Our track record
In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,734 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,354 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,987 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 2,003 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Villarreal 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atlético Madrid 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 361 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Villarreal vs Atlético Madrid. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Villarreal2
Atlético Madrid2Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Villarreal2Atlético Madrid2Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 75% | 57% | 43% |
| 30% | 70% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
19%
X-X
15%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.1%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.8%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
4.4%
1-3
3.4%
3-2
3.4%
3-0
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score