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Osasuna vs Girona 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result
OsasunaOsasuna

2–1

GironaGirona
1.1Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Osasuna would usually take 1.4 points and Girona 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Osasuna.

Osasuna +1.6 pts vs chancesGirona −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Osasuna vs Girona stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Osasuna

Girona

7

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

1

5

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

5

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Osasuna and Girona ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Osasuna win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sevilla – Osasuna prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

Osasuna vs Girona — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Osasuna to win

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,860 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Osasuna Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Osasuna 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Osasuna 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Girona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Girona 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,393 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Osasuna vs Girona 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Osasuna vs Girona. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
OsasunaOsasuna2
GironaGirona1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

149%
X25%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Osasuna23%77%55%45%
Girona38%62%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Osasuna0%0%0%0%
Girona0%0%0%0%

1st Half

133%
X43%
224%

1st Score

153%
X7%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

17%

X-1

15%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

11.4%

2-1

9.7%

2-0

8.6%

0-1

7.6%

0-0

7.2%

1-2

6.5%

2-2

5.2%

3-1

4.8%

3-0

4.3%

0-2

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sevilla – Osasuna prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

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