Celta de Vigo vs FC Barcelona 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)
Celta de Vigo2–1
FC BarcelonaOn these chances Celta de Vigo would usually take 1.8 points and FC Barcelona 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Barcelona.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Celta de Vigo vs FC Barcelona stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Celta de Vigo had more than twice the shots on target
Celta de Vigo
FC Barcelona
9
Shots on target
2
0
Big chances
2
2
Corners
4
2
Yellow cards
2
27%
Possession
73%
Celta de Vigo vs FC Barcelona — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,811 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Celta de Vigo 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona 2+ goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: FC Barcelona 0–1 goals.
Our track record
In 853 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Celta de Vigo vs FC Barcelona 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Celta de Vigo vs FC Barcelona. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Celta de Vigo2
FC Barcelona1Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
0-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Celta de Vigo2FC Barcelona1Winner
2 55%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
0-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 54% | 77% | 23% |
| 19% | 81% | 49% | 51% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
27%
X-2
17%
1-1
15%
X-X
15%
X-1
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
0-1
12.3%
1-1
10.4%
0-2
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
6.9%
1-0
6.4%
0-3
6.2%
2-1
5.6%
1-3
5.0%
2-2
4.6%
2-0
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score