Elche vs Cádiz 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)
Elche1–1
CádizOn these chances Elche would usually take 1.4 points and Cádiz 1.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Elche.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Elche vs Cádiz stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Elche had clearly more shots on target
Elche
Cádiz
5
Shots on target
3
2
Big chances
3
7
Corners
4
4
Yellow cards
3
67%
Possession
33%
Elche vs Cádiz — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Elche to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,628 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 807 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Elche 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Cádiz 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,393 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Elche vs Cádiz 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Elche vs Cádiz. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Elche1
Cádiz1Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Elche1Cádiz1Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 31% | 69% | 57% | 43% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 62% | 38% |
| 38% | 62% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
17%
X-X
16%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.6%
1-0
12.6%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.3%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.9%
3-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score