Espanyol vs Almería 3-3 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)
Espanyol3–3
AlmeríaOn these chances Espanyol would usually take 1.1 points and Almería 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Espanyol.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Espanyol vs Almería stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Espanyol had more than twice the shots on target
Espanyol
Almería
8
Shots on target
4
0
Big chances
2
7
Corners
5
2
Yellow cards
4
64%
Possession
37%
Espanyol vs Almería — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Espanyol to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,488 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,987 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Espanyol 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Espanyol 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Almería 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,393 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Espanyol vs Almería 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Espanyol vs Almería. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Espanyol3
Almería3Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Espanyol3Almería3Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 51% | 50% |
| 41% | 59% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
17%
X-X
14%
2-2
11%
X-2
9%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.4%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
10.2%
2-0
9.2%
0-1
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
1-2
5.7%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
3-0
4.7%
0-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score