Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Athletic Club2–1
Real SociedadOn these chances Athletic Club would usually take 1.8 points and Real Sociedad 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Athletic Club.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Real Sociedad had clearly more shots on target
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
3
Shots on target
5
5
Big chances
2
5
Corners
8
2
Yellow cards
3
38%
Possession
62%
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Athletic Club to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,721 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,138 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,961 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,960 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.7% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Athletic Club 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Athletic Club 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,028 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Real Sociedad 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,655 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Athletic Club2
Real Sociedad1Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Athletic Club2Real Sociedad1Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 57% | 44% |
| 31% | 69% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
16%
X-1
15%
X-X
15%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.1%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
0-2
4.5%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad — Recent Form
Real Sociedad have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Athletic Club have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Real SociedadAthletic ClubOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Real SociedadAthletic ClubBoth Teams to Score
Real SociedadAthletic ClubOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Real SociedadAthletic ClubOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Real SociedadAthletic ClubFirst Half Result
Real SociedadAthletic ClubCorrect Score
Real SociedadAthletic Club