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Deportivo Alavés vs Real Madrid 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 16)

Fair result
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés

1–2

Real MadridReal Madrid
0.8Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Deportivo Alavés would usually take 0.9 points and Real Madrid 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Real Madrid.

Deportivo Alavés −0.9 pts vs chancesReal Madrid +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Alavés vs Real Madrid stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Real Madrid had more than twice the shots on target

Deportivo Alavés

Real Madrid

2

Shots on target

6

3

Big chances

2

5

Corners

7

3

Yellow cards

1

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Deportivo Alavés and Real Madrid ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Real Madrid win with 61% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celta de Vigo – Deportivo Alavés prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Deportivo Alavés vs Real Madrid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid to win

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 1,048 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,108 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,123 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 3,920 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,209 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Deportivo Alavés Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Alavés 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 387 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Real Madrid Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Real Madrid 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Alavés vs Real Madrid 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Alavés vs Real Madrid. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés1
Real MadridReal Madrid2

Winner

2 61%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

117%
X22%
261%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportivo Alavés48%52%80%20%
Real Madrid16%84%44%56%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportivo Alavés94%6%99%1%
Real Madrid71%29%88%12%

1st Half

115%
X37%
249%

1st Score

128%
X6%
266%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

41%

X-2

18%

X-X

14%

1-1

8%

X-1

6%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

12.2%

0-2

11.0%

1-1

10.3%

1-2

10.0%

0-3

6.8%

0-0

6.5%

1-3

6.2%

1-0

5.4%

2-1

4.6%

2-2

4.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celta de Vigo – Deportivo Alavés prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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