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Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano

2–1

MallorcaMallorca
2.0Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Rayo Vallecano would usually take 2.1 points and Mallorca 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Rayo Vallecano.

Rayo Vallecano +0.9 pts vs chancesMallorca −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rayo Vallecano had more than twice the shots on target

Rayo Vallecano

Mallorca

5

Shots on target

2

2

Big chances

2

6

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

5

1

Red cards

0

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Rayo Vallecano win with 53% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rayo Vallecano – Celta de Vigo prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rayo Vallecano to win

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 2,497 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,757 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,366 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 3,684 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 6,727 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Rayo Vallecano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rayo Vallecano 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,504 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Mallorca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mallorca 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,504 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.1% of the time (bookmakers said 80.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano2
MallorcaMallorca1

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

153%
X26%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%59%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Rayo Vallecano23%77%56%44%
Mallorca47%53%81%19%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Rayo Vallecano81%19%93%7%
Mallorca95%5%99%1%

1st Half

142%
X42%
217%

1st Score

162%
X10%
229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

19%

X-X

15%

2-2

9%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.6%

1-1

12.2%

2-0

10.7%

0-0

9.7%

2-1

9.4%

0-1

8.1%

3-0

5.3%

1-2

5.1%

3-1

4.5%

2-2

3.8%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rayo Vallecano – Celta de Vigo prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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