Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona 0-1 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 27)
Athletic Club0–1
FC BarcelonaOn these chances Athletic Club would usually take 1.9 points and FC Barcelona 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Barcelona.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Athletic Club had clearly more shots on target
Athletic Club
FC Barcelona
3
Shots on target
2
3
Big chances
1
2
Corners
4
2
Yellow cards
1
29%
Possession
72%
Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,489 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 2,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,110 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.9%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: FC Barcelona ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,250 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Athletic Club 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,023 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Athletic Club0
FC Barcelona1Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Athletic Club0FC Barcelona1Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 38% | 62% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 51% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 64% | 66% | 34% |
| 18% | 82% | 46% | 55% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 71% | 29% | 87% | 13% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
29%
1-1
16%
X-2
15%
X-X
14%
X-1
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
7.7%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
5.3%
0-3
4.4%
0-0
4.3%
2-3
4.0%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score