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Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 27)

Fair result
ValenciaValencia

3–2

Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
2.7Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Valencia would usually take 2.0 points and Deportivo Alavés 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Valencia.

Valencia +1.0 pts vs chancesDeportivo Alavés −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Valencia had more than twice the shots on target

Valencia

Deportivo Alavés

8

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

2

10

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

4

0

Red cards

2

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Valencia and Deportivo Alavés ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Valencia win with 44% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Deportivo Alavés – Málaga prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Valencia to win

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Valencia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Valencia 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Deportivo Alavés Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Alavés 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 74%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Valencia vs Deportivo Alavés. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
ValenciaValencia3
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés2

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

144%
X27%
228%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Valencia27%73%62%38%
Deportivo Alavés39%61%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Valencia85%15%95%5%
Deportivo Alavés92%8%98%2%

1st Half

127%
X48%
225%

1st Score

147%
X9%
244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.8%

1-0

12.6%

0-1

9.4%

0-0

9.4%

2-1

8.7%

2-0

8.4%

1-2

6.7%

0-2

4.7%

2-2

4.5%

3-0

3.9%

3-1

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Deportivo Alavés – Málaga prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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