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Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 28)

Fair result
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés

1–1

VillarrealVillarreal
0.5Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Deportivo Alavés would usually take 0.8 points and Villarreal 1.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Villarreal.

Deportivo Alavés +0.2 pts vs chancesVillarreal −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Villarreal had more than twice the shots on target

Deportivo Alavés

Villarreal

0

Shots on target

4

0

Big chances

2

5

Corners

2

4

Yellow cards

1

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Deportivo Alavés and Villarreal ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Deportivo Alavés win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Villarreal – Espanyol prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Alavés to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Villarreal to win.

Our model 37%Bookmakers 27%

Our track record

In 1,536 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,748 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,864 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,996 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,718 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Deportivo Alavés Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Alavés 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Villarreal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Villarreal 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés1
VillarrealVillarreal1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

137%
X26%
237%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportivo Alavés29%71%62%38%
Villarreal29%71%62%38%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportivo Alavés84%16%95%5%
Villarreal84%16%94%6%

1st Half

131%
X43%
226%

1st Score

148%
X7%
245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

18%

X-X

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

1-0

8.9%

2-1

8.4%

0-1

8.4%

1-2

8.3%

0-0

6.6%

2-2

5.8%

2-0

5.7%

0-2

5.4%

3-1

3.7%

1-3

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Villarreal – Espanyol prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

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