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Málaga vs Villarreal 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
MálagaMálaga

1–3

VillarrealVillarreal
0.4Chances (xG)2.8

On these chances Málaga would usually take 0.2 points and Villarreal 2.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Villarreal.

Málaga −0.2 pts vs chancesVillarreal +0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Málaga vs Villarreal stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Villarreal had more than twice the shots on target

Málaga

Villarreal

1

Shots on target

7

0

Big chances

7

4

Corners

8

5

Yellow cards

1

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Málaga and Villarreal ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Málaga win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Villarreal – Espanyol prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Málaga vs Villarreal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Málaga to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Villarreal to win.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 27%

Our track record

In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 72%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Málaga Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Málaga 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Villarreal Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Villarreal 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Villarreal 2+ goals.

Our model 69%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 134 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 65–70%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Málaga vs Villarreal 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Málaga vs Villarreal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
MálagaMálaga1
VillarrealVillarreal3

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

143%
X27%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Málaga25%75%58%42%
Villarreal35%65%69%31%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Málaga82%18%94%6%
Villarreal88%12%96%4%

1st Half

135%
X41%
223%

1st Score

152%
X8%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

17%

X-1

16%

2-2

16%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

1-0

10.2%

2-1

9.2%

0-1

8.0%

0-0

7.8%

1-2

7.2%

2-0

7.1%

2-2

5.6%

0-2

4.4%

3-1

4.4%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Villarreal – Espanyol prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

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