Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna 4-0 Score & Prediction Review
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)
Atlético Madrid4–0
OsasunaOn these chances Atlético Madrid would usually take 2.8 points and Osasuna 0.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Madrid.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna stats: how the match was played
La Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Atlético Madrid had more than twice the shots on target
Atlético Madrid
Osasuna
11
Shots on target
1
10
Big chances
1
8
Corners
0
1
Yellow cards
2
68%
Possession
32%
Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,045 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,557 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,478 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atlético Madrid ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,154 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,748 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Osasuna 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,488 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Atlético Madrid4
Osasuna0Winner
1 63%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Atlético Madrid4Osasuna0Winner
1 63%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 46% | 54% |
| 54% | 46% | 83% | 17% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
34%
X-1
20%
X-X
16%
2-2
9%
X-2
7%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.5%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
8.7%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
5.3%
0-1
4.8%
2-2
3.9%
1-2
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Madrid vs Osasuna — Recent Form
Atlético Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Osasuna have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético MadridOsasunaOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
OsasunaAtlético MadridBoth Teams to Score
OsasunaAtlético MadridOver/Under 2.5 Goals
OsasunaAtlético MadridOver/Under 3.5 Goals
OsasunaAtlético MadridFirst Half Result
OsasunaAtlético MadridCorrect Score
OsasunaAtlético Madrid