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Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result

Osasuna

1–1

Rayo Vallecano

0.9Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Osasuna would usually take 1.0 points and Rayo Vallecano 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Osasuna.

Osasuna 0.0 pts vs chancesRayo Vallecano −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Osasuna had clearly more shots on target

Osasuna

Rayo Vallecano

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Osasuna win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club prediction & betting tips (Oct 10, 2026).

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Osasuna to win

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Osasuna Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Osasuna 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Rayo Vallecano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rayo Vallecano 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,260 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Osasuna1

Rayo Vallecano1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

La Liga - Spain

Osasuna1

Rayo Vallecano1

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

150%

X24%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	21%	79%	51%	49%	77%	24%	91%	9%
	37%	63%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	21%	79%	51%	49%
	37%	63%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	24%	91%	9%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

136%

X43%

221%

1st Score

157%

X6%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

18%

X-X

16%

2-2

12%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.2%

2-1

10.1%

1-0

9.6%

2-0

8.0%

1-2

6.7%

0-1

6.3%

0-0

6.1%

2-2

5.7%

3-1

5.3%

3-0

4.5%

0-2

3.7%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table. Osasuna have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Rayo Vallecano

Osasuna

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Rayo Vallecano

4/5

Osasuna

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Rayo Vallecano

3/5

Osasuna

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rayo Vallecano

3/5

Osasuna

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Rayo Vallecano

2/5

Osasuna

3/5

First Half Result

Rayo Vallecano

3/5

Osasuna

0/5

Correct Score

Rayo Vallecano

1/5

Osasuna

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club prediction & betting tips (Oct 10, 2026).