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Derry City vs Dundalk

Derry City vs Dundalk 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premier Division - Season 2026 (Round 35)

Fair result

Derry City

2–1

Dundalk

1.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Derry City would usually take 1.9 points and Dundalk 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Derry City.

Derry City +1.1 pts vs chancesDundalk −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Derry City vs Dundalk stats: how the match was played

Premier Division

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Derry City had clearly more shots on target

Derry City

Dundalk

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Derry City and Dundalk ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Derry City win with 47% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dundalk – Shamrock Rovers prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Derry City vs Dundalk — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier Division

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derry City to win

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Derry City ahead at half-time.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 1,203 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.0% than to our 35–40%.

Derry City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derry City 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Dundalk Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dundalk 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Derry City vs Dundalk 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Derry City vs Dundalk. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier Division - Republic of Ireland

Derry City2

Dundalk1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Premier Division - Republic of Ireland

Derry City2

Dundalk1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

147%

X24%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%	52%	48%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	49%	51%	75%	25%	90%	10%
	33%	67%	64%	36%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	49%	51%
	33%	67%	64%	36%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	75%	25%	90%	10%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

138%

X39%

223%

1st Score

154%

X5%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.3%

2-1

9.9%

1-0

7.7%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.8%

2-2

6.6%

0-1

5.6%

3-1

5.0%

0-0

4.6%

3-0

4.0%

3-2

3.6%

0-2

3.5%

1-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Derry City vs Dundalk — Recent Form

Derry City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Dundalk have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Derry City

Dundalk

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Derry City

2/5

Dundalk

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Derry City

2/5

Dundalk

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Derry City

2/5

Dundalk

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Derry City

4/5

Dundalk

3/5

First Half Result

Derry City

3/5

Dundalk

2/5

Correct Score

Derry City

1/5

Dundalk

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dundalk – Shamrock Rovers prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).