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Reading vs Shrewsbury Town

Reading vs Shrewsbury Town 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2024/2025 (Round 16)

Fair result

Reading

1–1

Shrewsbury Town

0.8Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Reading would usually take 0.9 points and Shrewsbury Town 1.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Reading.

Reading +0.1 pts vs chancesShrewsbury Town −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Reading vs Shrewsbury Town stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Shrewsbury Town had more than twice the shots on target

Reading

Shrewsbury Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

59%

Possession

41%

The match between Reading and Shrewsbury Town ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Reading win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Reading – Leyton Orient prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Reading vs Shrewsbury Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Reading to win

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,464 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,451 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,948 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,641 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Reading Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Reading 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Shrewsbury Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shrewsbury Town 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,351 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Reading vs Shrewsbury Town 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Reading vs Shrewsbury Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League One - England

Reading1

Shrewsbury Town1

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

League One - England

Reading1

Shrewsbury Town1

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

151%

X25%

224%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	23%	77%	47%	53%	59%	41%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	23%	77%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	41%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	50%	50%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	40%	60%	73%	27%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	50%	50%
	40%	60%	73%	27%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

134%

X44%

222%

1st Score

154%

X7%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-1

18%

X-X

16%

2-2

13%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

1-0

10.1%

2-1

9.3%

2-0

8.8%

0-0

6.5%

0-1

6.5%

1-2

6.1%

2-2

5.3%

3-0

5.2%

3-1

5.2%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Reading – Leyton Orient prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).