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Peterborough United vs Bolton Wanderers 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2025/2026 (Round 26)

Fair result
Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United

3–1

Bolton WanderersBolton Wanderers
1.5Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Peterborough United would usually take 1.6 points and Bolton Wanderers 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bolton Wanderers.

Peterborough United +1.4 pts vs chancesBolton Wanderers −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Peterborough United vs Bolton Wanderers stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Peterborough United had more than twice the shots on target

Peterborough United

Bolton Wanderers

7

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

2

5

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

0

59%

Possession

41%

The match between Peterborough United and Bolton Wanderers ended 3-1. Our AI model predicted an Bolton Wanderers win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Peterborough United – Burton Albion prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Peterborough United vs Bolton Wanderers — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers to win

Wrong
Our model 38%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,082 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,123 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,920 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,012 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Peterborough United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Peterborough United 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,423 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Bolton Wanderers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,660 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Peterborough United vs Bolton Wanderers 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Peterborough United vs Bolton Wanderers. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League One - England
Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United3
Bolton WanderersBolton Wanderers1

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

138%
X24%
238%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%42%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Peterborough United28%72%61%39%
Bolton Wanderers28%72%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Peterborough United83%17%94%6%
Bolton Wanderers83%17%94%6%

1st Half

128%
X40%
232%

1st Score

144%
X6%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

25%

1-1

20%

X-X

15%

X-2

14%

X-1

11%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

8.3%

0-1

8.3%

1-0

8.2%

0-2

5.8%

2-0

5.8%

2-2

5.7%

0-0

5.6%

3-1

4.1%

1-3

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Peterborough United – Burton Albion prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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