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Burton Albion vs Stevenage

Burton Albion vs Stevenage 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2025/2026 (Round 36)

Fair result

Burton Albion

0–1

Stevenage

0.4Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Burton Albion would usually take 0.6 points and Stevenage 2.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Burton Albion.

Burton Albion −0.6 pts vs chancesStevenage +0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Burton Albion vs Stevenage stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Stevenage had more than twice the shots on target

Burton Albion

Stevenage

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Burton Albion and Stevenage ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Burton Albion win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wycombe Wanderers – Burton Albion prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Burton Albion vs Stevenage — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burton Albion to win

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 549 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,862 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 6,710 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Burton Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burton Albion 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Stevenage Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stevenage 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Burton Albion vs Stevenage 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Burton Albion vs Stevenage. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League One - England

Burton Albion0

Stevenage1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

League One - England

Burton Albion0

Stevenage1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

143%

X26%

231%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%	61%	39%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	34%	66%	67%	33%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%
	34%	66%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

132%

X45%

224%

1st Score

151%

X7%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

18%

X-1

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.3%

1-0

10.0%

2-1

9.0%

0-1

7.9%

1-2

7.3%

2-0

7.0%

0-0

6.9%

2-2

5.6%

0-2

4.6%

3-1

4.3%

3-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wycombe Wanderers – Burton Albion prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).