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Rotherham United vs Bolton Wanderers

Rotherham United vs Bolton Wanderers 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2025/2026 (Round 37)

Robbed

Bolton Wanderers drew despite more chances

Rotherham United

2–2

Bolton Wanderers

1.1Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Rotherham United would usually take 0.7 points and Bolton Wanderers 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Bolton Wanderers.

Rotherham United +0.3 pts vs chancesBolton Wanderers −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rotherham United vs Bolton Wanderers stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bolton Wanderers had more than twice the shots on target

Rotherham United

Bolton Wanderers

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Rotherham United and Bolton Wanderers ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Bolton Wanderers win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

Rotherham United vs Bolton Wanderers — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers to win

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,121 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Rotherham United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rotherham United 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 834 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Bolton Wanderers Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 636 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rotherham United vs Bolton Wanderers 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rotherham United vs Bolton Wanderers. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League One - England

Rotherham United2

Bolton Wanderers2

Winner

2 51%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

League One - England

Rotherham United2

Bolton Wanderers2

Winner

2 51%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

123%

X26%

251%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	71%	55%	45%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	71%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	43%	57%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%
	23%	77%	55%	45%	80%	20%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	43%	57%	77%	23%
	23%	77%	55%	45%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	93%	7%	98%	2%
	80%	20%	93%	7%

1st Half

121%

X42%

236%

1st Score

133%

X9%

258%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

32%

X-2

18%

X-X

15%

1-1

12%

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

13.0%

1-1

12.0%

0-2

9.5%

1-2

9.5%

0-0

8.7%

1-0

7.8%

2-1

5.5%

0-3

4.9%

1-3

4.7%

2-2

4.5%

2-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score