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Northampton Town vs Burton Albion 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2025/2026 (Round 37)

Fair result
Northampton TownNorthampton Town

0–2

Burton AlbionBurton Albion
1.1Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Northampton Town would usually take 1.2 points and Burton Albion 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Burton Albion.

Northampton Town −1.2 pts vs chancesBurton Albion +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Northampton Town vs Burton Albion stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Northampton Town

Burton Albion

3

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

3

7

Corners

4

2

Yellow cards

2

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Northampton Town and Burton Albion ended 0-2. Our AI model predicted a Northampton Town win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Burton Albion – Leyton Orient prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Northampton Town vs Burton Albion — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Northampton Town to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Burton Albion to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 1,520 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,460 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,655 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 6,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Northampton Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Northampton Town 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,456 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Burton Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burton Albion 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,358 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Northampton Town vs Burton Albion 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Northampton Town vs Burton Albion. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League One - England
Northampton TownNorthampton Town0
Burton AlbionBurton Albion2

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

140%
X28%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Northampton Town30%70%65%35%
Burton Albion35%65%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Northampton Town87%13%96%4%
Burton Albion90%10%97%3%

1st Half

132%
X44%
224%

1st Score

150%
X9%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

18%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

1-0

11.6%

0-1

10.1%

0-0

9.3%

2-1

8.4%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

7.1%

0-2

5.5%

2-2

4.8%

3-1

3.4%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Burton Albion – Leyton Orient prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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