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Leyton Orient vs Barnsley 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Leyton OrientLeyton Orient

1–3

BarnsleyBarnsley
0.8Chances (xG)2.2

On these chances Leyton Orient would usually take 0.5 points and Barnsley 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Leyton Orient.

Leyton Orient −0.5 pts vs chancesBarnsley +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Barnsley had more than twice the shots on target

Leyton Orient

Barnsley

3

Shots on target

7

2

Big chances

2

4

Corners

10

4

Yellow cards

4

47%

Possession

54%

The match between Leyton Orient and Barnsley ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Leyton Orient win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wigan Athletic – Barnsley prediction & betting tips (Nov 14, 2026).

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leyton Orient to win

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,093 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,168 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 71%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,585 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,669 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.2% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Leyton Orient Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leyton Orient 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Barnsley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Barnsley 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,665 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Leyton Orient vs Barnsley. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League One - England
Leyton OrientLeyton Orient1
BarnsleyBarnsley3

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

140%
X25%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Leyton Orient28%72%61%39%
Barnsley31%69%64%36%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Leyton Orient84%16%95%5%
Barnsley86%14%95%5%

1st Half

130%
X42%
227%

1st Score

147%
X7%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

20%

X-X

15%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.0%

1-0

9.4%

2-1

8.6%

0-1

8.2%

1-2

8.2%

0-0

7.0%

2-0

6.6%

0-2

5.7%

2-2

5.4%

3-1

4.1%

1-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wigan Athletic – Barnsley prediction & betting tips (Nov 14, 2026).

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