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Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

League One - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result
Plymouth ArgylePlymouth Argyle

0–1

Burton AlbionBurton Albion
1.5Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Plymouth Argyle would usually take 1.8 points and Burton Albion 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Plymouth Argyle.

Plymouth Argyle −1.8 pts vs chancesBurton Albion +2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion stats: how the match was played

League One

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Plymouth Argyle

Burton Albion

3

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

1

3

Corners

4

3

Yellow cards

3

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Plymouth Argyle and Burton Albion ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Plymouth Argyle win at 52% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield Wednesday – Plymouth Argyle prediction & betting tips (Nov 14, 2026).

Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League One

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Plymouth Argyle to win

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 2,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.9% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,744 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,330 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Plymouth Argyle ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Plymouth Argyle Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Plymouth Argyle 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.2% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Burton Albion Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Burton Albion 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,384 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League One - England
Plymouth ArgylePlymouth Argyle0
Burton AlbionBurton Albion1

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

152%
X24%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Plymouth Argyle20%80%49%51%
Burton Albion39%61%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Plymouth Argyle74%26%89%11%
Burton Albion90%10%97%3%

1st Half

137%
X43%
220%

1st Score

158%
X6%
236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

17%

X-X

15%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.2%

1-0

9.9%

2-1

9.6%

2-0

8.1%

0-1

6.3%

1-2

6.2%

0-0

5.9%

3-1

5.5%

2-2

5.5%

3-0

5.0%

3-2

3.3%

0-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield Wednesday – Plymouth Argyle prediction & betting tips (Nov 14, 2026).

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