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Port Vale vs Rochdale

Port Vale vs Rochdale 4-2 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 14)

Fair result

Port Vale

4–2

Rochdale

2.0Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Port Vale would usually take 1.9 points and Rochdale 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Port Vale.

Port Vale +1.1 pts vs chancesRochdale −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Port Vale vs Rochdale stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Port Vale

Rochdale

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Port Vale and Rochdale ended 4-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Port Vale win with 52% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Port Vale vs Rochdale — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Port Vale to win

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,302 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,628 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Port Vale ahead at half-time.

Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Port Vale Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Port Vale 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Port Vale 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Rochdale Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,565 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Port Vale vs Rochdale 4-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Port Vale vs Rochdale. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Port Vale4

Rochdale2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

League Two - England

Port Vale4

Rochdale2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

152%

X26%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	44%	56%	78%	22%	94%	6%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%
	44%	56%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	94%	6%	98%	2%

1st Half

137%

X42%

221%

1st Score

156%

X9%

236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

17%

X-X

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

13.3%

1-1

12.3%

2-0

9.6%

2-1

9.4%

0-0

8.7%

0-1

7.8%

1-2

5.4%

3-0

5.1%

3-1

4.7%

2-2

4.3%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Port Vale vs Rochdale — Recent Form

Port Vale have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table. Rochdale have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Port Vale

Rochdale

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Rochdale

2/5

Port Vale

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Rochdale

3/5

Port Vale

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rochdale

3/5

Port Vale

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Rochdale

2/5

Port Vale

5/5

First Half Result

Rochdale

0/5

Port Vale

0/5

Correct Score

Rochdale

1/5

Port Vale

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction