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Bristol Rovers vs Newport County

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2025/2026 (Round 30)

Fair result

Bristol Rovers

3–0

Newport County

1.8Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Bristol Rovers would usually take 2.4 points and Newport County 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bristol Rovers.

Bristol Rovers +0.6 pts vs chancesNewport County −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bristol Rovers had more than twice the shots on target

Bristol Rovers

Newport County

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

41%

Possession

60%

The match between Bristol Rovers and Newport County ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Bristol Rovers win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cheltenham Town – Newport County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bristol Rovers to win

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,598 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,309 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,959 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Bristol Rovers Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bristol Rovers 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Bristol Rovers 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,018 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Newport County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newport County 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bristol Rovers vs Newport County 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bristol Rovers vs Newport County. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Bristol Rovers3

Newport County0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

· FT

League Two - England

Bristol Rovers3

Newport County0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

141%

X24%

235%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%	56%	44%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	56%	44%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	57%	43%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	31%	69%	63%	37%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	57%	43%
	31%	69%	63%	37%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

133%

X43%

224%

1st Score

153%

X5%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

14%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

2-1

8.5%

1-0

8.5%

1-2

8.0%

0-1

8.0%

2-0

6.2%

2-2

5.6%

0-0

5.4%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.3%

1-3

3.6%

3-0

3.3%

3-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cheltenham Town – Newport County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).