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Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town

Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2025/2026 (Round 30)

Fair result

Accrington Stanley

3–1

Cheltenham Town

1.6Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Accrington Stanley would usually take 1.5 points and Cheltenham Town 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Accrington Stanley.

Accrington Stanley +1.5 pts vs chancesCheltenham Town −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Accrington Stanley had more than twice the shots on target

Accrington Stanley

Cheltenham Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

43%

Possession

58%

The match between Accrington Stanley and Cheltenham Town ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Accrington Stanley win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Tranmere Rovers – Cheltenham Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Accrington Stanley to win

Correct

Our model 43%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,206 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 4,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,294 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Accrington Stanley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Accrington Stanley 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Cheltenham Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cheltenham Town 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,316 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Accrington Stanley3

Cheltenham Town1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

League Two - England

Accrington Stanley3

Cheltenham Town1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

143%

X26%

230%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	64%	36%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	35%	65%	69%	31%	89%	11%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	59%	41%
	35%	65%	69%	31%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	89%	11%	97%	3%

1st Half

132%

X46%

222%

1st Score

154%

X7%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-1

18%

X-X

16%

2-2

13%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.8%

1-0

10.7%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.4%

0-0

7.5%

2-0

7.4%

1-2

7.4%

2-2

5.1%

0-2

4.9%

3-1

4.3%

3-0

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Tranmere Rovers – Cheltenham Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).