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Gillingham vs Bromley 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2025/2026 (Round 30)

Smash-and-grab

Bromley won with fewer chances than Gillingham

GillinghamGillingham

1–4

BromleyBromley
2.4Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Gillingham would usually take 2.1 points and Bromley 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Gillingham.

Gillingham −2.1 pts vs chancesBromley +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Gillingham vs Bromley stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Gillingham had clearly more shots on target

Gillingham

Bromley

11

Shots on target

6

4

Big chances

1

8

Corners

0

1

Yellow cards

3

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Gillingham and Bromley ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Gillingham win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Accrington Stanley – Gillingham prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Gillingham vs Bromley — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gillingham to win

Wrong
Our model 37%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,060 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,090 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,212 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,188 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Gillingham Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gillingham 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Bromley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bromley 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,210 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Gillingham vs Bromley 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gillingham vs Bromley. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
GillinghamGillingham1
BromleyBromley4

Winner

12 72%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

137%
X28%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Gillingham32%68%67%33%
Bromley33%67%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Gillingham88%12%97%3%
Bromley89%11%97%3%

1st Half

127%
X47%
225%

1st Score

145%
X10%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

20%

2-2

18%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.2%

1-0

11.0%

0-1

10.6%

0-0

9.6%

2-1

8.1%

1-2

7.8%

0-2

6.5%

2-0

6.3%

2-2

4.6%

3-1

3.1%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Accrington Stanley – Gillingham prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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