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Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury Town

Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury Town 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2025/2026 (Round 36)

Smash-and-grab

Shrewsbury Town won with fewer chances than Chesterfield

Chesterfield

2–3

Shrewsbury Town

2.3Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Chesterfield would usually take 2.0 points and Shrewsbury Town 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Chesterfield.

Chesterfield −2.0 pts vs chancesShrewsbury Town +2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Chesterfield

Shrewsbury Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

74%

Possession

26%

The match between Chesterfield and Shrewsbury Town ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Chesterfield win at 58% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 2.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield to win

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 1,775 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,109 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 73%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,518 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,184 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.

Chesterfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chesterfield 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,785 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Shrewsbury Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shrewsbury Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 80%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury Town 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Chesterfield2

Shrewsbury Town3

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

League Two - England

Chesterfield2

Shrewsbury Town3

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

158%

X23%

218%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%	63%	37%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	48%	52%	74%	26%	90%	10%
	47%	53%	80%	20%	95%	5%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	48%	52%
	47%	53%	80%	20%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	74%	26%	90%	10%
	95%	5%	99%	1%

1st Half

145%

X38%

217%

1st Score

165%

X7%

228%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

18%

X-X

14%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.6%

1-1

11.1%

2-0

10.7%

2-1

10.2%

0-0

7.0%

3-0

6.6%

0-1

5.9%

3-1

5.6%

1-2

5.0%

2-2

4.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).