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Salford City vs Swindon Town 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result
Salford CitySalford City

1–0

Swindon TownSwindon Town
1.9Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Salford City would usually take 2.0 points and Swindon Town 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Salford City.

Salford City +1.0 pts vs chancesSwindon Town −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Salford City vs Swindon Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Salford City had more than twice the shots on target

Salford City

Swindon Town

6

Shots on target

1

1

Big chances

1

12

Corners

5

0

Yellow cards

3

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Salford City and Swindon Town ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Salford City win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Salford City vs Swindon Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Salford City to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 1,794 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,453 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,952 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Salford City ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Salford City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Salford City 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Swindon Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swindon Town 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,574 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Salford City vs Swindon Town 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Salford City vs Swindon Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
Salford CitySalford City1
Swindon TownSwindon Town0

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

159%
X23%
219%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%43%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Salford City16%84%44%56%
Swindon Town45%55%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Salford City71%29%88%12%
Swindon Town93%7%98%2%

1st Half

142%
X40%
218%

1st Score

164%
X6%
230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

19%

X-X

14%

2-2

9%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

10.7%

1-1

10.5%

2-1

10.4%

2-0

9.7%

3-0

6.6%

3-1

6.2%

0-0

5.9%

0-1

5.4%

1-2

5.0%

2-2

4.9%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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