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Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury Town

Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury Town 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Robbed

Shrewsbury Town drew despite more chances

Crewe Alexandra

1–1

Shrewsbury Town

1.1Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Crewe Alexandra would usually take 0.8 points and Shrewsbury Town 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Crewe Alexandra.

Crewe Alexandra +0.2 pts vs chancesShrewsbury Town −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Shrewsbury Town had clearly more shots on target

Crewe Alexandra

Shrewsbury Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

63%

Possession

37%

The match between Crewe Alexandra and Shrewsbury Town ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Crewe Alexandra win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shrewsbury Town – Gillingham prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crewe Alexandra to win

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,726 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Crewe Alexandra Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crewe Alexandra 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Shrewsbury Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shrewsbury Town 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury Town 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Crewe Alexandra1

Shrewsbury Town1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

League Two - England

Crewe Alexandra1

Shrewsbury Town1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

148%

X27%

225%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	57%	43%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	40%	60%	75%	25%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	57%	43%
	40%	60%	75%	25%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

132%

X44%

224%

1st Score

152%

X9%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

18%

X-1

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.3%

1-0

12.0%

2-1

9.6%

0-0

8.8%

2-0

8.8%

0-1

8.3%

1-2

6.3%

2-2

4.7%

3-0

4.6%

3-1

4.4%

0-2

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shrewsbury Town – Gillingham prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).