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Port Vale vs Northampton Town Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Fewer goals than usual expected in Port Vale vs Northampton Town
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Port Vale vs Northampton Town score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Bore draw alertJust 2.1 goals expected
2.1 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the League Two average is 2.6).
goals expected
Port Vale1.1
Northampton Town0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Northampton Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Port Vale to win
Our track record
In 1,060 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our track record
In 6,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.1% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,121 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 4,556 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.3%).
Our model’s pick
Port Vale ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 2,284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Port Vale 2+ goals
Our track record
In 1,897 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 40.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.5% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Northampton Town 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,461 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.5%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Port Vale vs Northampton Town — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Port Vale vs Northampton Town. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Port Vale–
Northampton Town–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Port Vale–Northampton Town–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 47% | 53% |
| 51% | 49% | 83% | 17% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 89% | 11% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
38%
X-1
20%
X-X
14%
2-2
9%
X-2
6%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
13.8%
2-0
11.3%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
7.0%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
4.2%
2-2
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Port Vale vs Northampton Town: attack vs defence
League Two
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Port Vale: weak attack, good defence (1.25 xG, 1.13 xGA a game)
- Northampton Town: weak attack, good defence (1.12 xG, 1.21 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Northampton Town form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Port ValeBookmakers: 43% to win today.Wasteful · −3 goals−0.4
- Northampton TownBookmakers: 28% to win today.−1.3
Last 5 matches
Port ValeNorthampton TownStrength rank: Port Vale 10th of 24 · Northampton Town 11th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Northampton Town: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredPort Vale and Northampton Town games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the League Two average (48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 541 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Northampton Town corners, cards and goal times
League Two
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.9
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 24%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Northampton TownPort ValeBoth Teams to Score
Northampton TownPort ValeOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Northampton TownPort ValeOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Northampton TownPort ValeFirst Half Result
Northampton TownPort ValeCorrect Score
Northampton TownPort Vale