Shot-shy
4/7Northampton Town failed to score in 4 of their last 7 (league 28%).
York City vs Northampton Town Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Wasteful
Northampton Town are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
−3goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 7 with xG
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Northampton Town 18% to winYork City 58%
York City vs Northampton Town score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
York City expected to create clearly more
2.4 goals in total, a little under the League Two average of 2.6.
goals expected
York City1.5Northampton Town0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for York City vs Northampton Town: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
York City vs Northampton Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
York City to win
Our model 68%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 593 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.0% of the time (bookmakers said 71.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 6,315 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 5,141 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,819 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
York City ahead at half-time
Our model 51%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 1,199 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.2% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).
York City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
York City 2+ goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 3,372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Northampton Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Northampton Town 0–1 goals
Our model 83%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 1,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
York City vs Northampton Town — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for York City vs Northampton Town. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
York City–
Northampton Town–Winner
1 68%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
York City–Northampton Town–Winner
1 68%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
168%
X19%
214%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13% | 87% | 38% | 62% |
| 53% | 47% | 83% | 17% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 36% | 83% | 17% |
| 96% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
151%
X34%
215%
1st Score
169%
X5%
226%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
49%
X-1
19%
X-X
10%
2-2
7%
X-2
4%
2-1
4%
1-X
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
11.2%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
10.2%
1-1
9.0%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
5.1%
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.8%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
York City vs Northampton Town: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Northampton Town: shot-shy
4/7Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →York City vs Northampton Town: attack vs defence
League Two
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- York City: good attack, good defence (1.76 xG, 1.24 xGA a game)
- Northampton Town: weak attack, good defence (0.92 xG, 0.99 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →York City vs Northampton Town form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- York CityBookmakers: 58% to win today. · 8 of 10 games−0.8
- Northampton TownBookmakers: 18% to win today. · 7 of 10 gamesWasteful · −3 goals−3.7
Last 5 matches
York CityW
L
W
D
L
Northampton TownL
L
W
D
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: York City 3rd of 24 · Northampton Town 12th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →York City vs Northampton Town: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredNorthampton Town games go over 2.5 goals less often than the League Two average (48%), York City games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
York City5 of 8
Northampton Town0 of 7
BTTSleague 52%
York City5 of 8
Northampton Town2 of 7
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 528 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →York City vs Northampton Town corners, cards and goal times
League Two
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameYork City: last 8 with these statsNorthampton Town: last 7 with these statsGoal times close to the League Two average
York City
Northampton Town
6.3
Corners won · league 4.9
5.1
4.4
Corners conceded · league 4.9
3.4
1.3
Cards · league 1.9
1.7
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.7
44%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
67%
25%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
33%
40%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
50%
40%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
0%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
York City3/5
Northampton Town2/5
Both Teams to Score
York City2/5
Northampton Town2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
York City4/5
Northampton Town5/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
York City3/5
Northampton Town5/5
First Half Result
York City4/5
Northampton Town3/5
Correct Score
York City1/5
Northampton Town2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction