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York City vs Northampton Town

York City vs Northampton Town 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

York City

1–1

Northampton Town

1.2Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances York City would usually take 1.4 points and Northampton Town 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: York City.

York City −0.4 pts vs chancesNorthampton Town −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

York City vs Northampton Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Northampton Town had clearly more shots on target

York City

Northampton Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

78%

Possession

22%

The match between York City and Northampton Town ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a York City win at 67% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grimsby Town – York City prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

York City vs Northampton Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City to win

Wrong

Our model 67%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.4% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 1,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

York City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Northampton Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Northampton Town 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 82%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

York City vs Northampton Town 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for York City vs Northampton Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

York City1

Northampton Town1

Winner

1 67%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

2-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

League Two - England

York City1

Northampton Town1

Winner

1 67%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

2-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

167%

X19%

214%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%	55%	45%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	41%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	13%	87%	38%	62%	63%	37%	83%	17%
	52%	48%	82%	18%	95%	5%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	13%	87%	38%	62%
	52%	48%	82%	18%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	63%	37%	83%	17%
	95%	5%	99%	1%

1st Half

152%

X34%

214%

1st Score

169%

X5%

226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

50%

X-1

19%

X-X

10%

2-2

X-2

2-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

10.7%

1-0

10.6%

2-1

10.0%

1-1

9.0%

3-0

8.7%

3-1

6.7%

0-0

5.0%

0-1

4.2%

1-2

4.1%

2-2

4.0%

3-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

York City vs Northampton Town — Recent Form

Northampton Town have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 19th in the table. York City have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Northampton Town

York City

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

York City

2/5

Northampton Town

0/5

Both Teams to Score

York City

5/5

Northampton Town

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

York City

1/5

Northampton Town

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

York City

4/5

Northampton Town

5/5

First Half Result

York City

2/5

Northampton Town

1/5

Correct Score

York City

1/5

Northampton Town

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grimsby Town – York City prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).