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Port Vale vs Grimsby Town 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Port Vale1–0
Grimsby TownOn these chances Port Vale would usually take 2.2 points and Grimsby Town 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Grimsby Town.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Grimsby Town stats: how the match was played
League Two
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Port Vale had more than twice the shots on target
Port Vale
Grimsby Town
7
Shots on target
2
5
Big chances
0
8
Corners
4
1
Yellow cards
1
49%
Possession
52%
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Port Vale to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Grimsby Town to win.
Our track record
In 1,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,704 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.6% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Port Vale 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Grimsby Town 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Port Vale vs Grimsby Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Port Vale1
Grimsby Town0Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Port Vale1Grimsby Town0Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 35% | 65% | 62% | 38% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 71% | 29% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34% | 66% | 70% | 30% |
| 35% | 65% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
22%
1-1
18%
X-X
18%
X-2
14%
X-1
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.7%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
11.7%
0-0
10.9%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town — Recent Form
Port Vale have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 23rd in the table. Grimsby Town have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Port ValeGrimsby TownOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Grimsby TownPort ValeBoth Teams to Score
Grimsby TownPort ValeOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Grimsby TownPort ValeOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Grimsby TownPort ValeFirst Half Result
Grimsby TownPort ValeCorrect Score
Grimsby TownPort Vale