Shot-shy
4/7Port Vale failed to score in 4 of their last 7 (league 28%).
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Unlucky
Port Vale are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 7 with xG
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Port Vale 38% to winGrimsby Town 34%
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.4 goals in total, a little under the League Two average of 2.6.
goals expected
Port Vale1.2
Grimsby Town1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Port Vale vs Grimsby Town: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Grimsby Town to win
Our model 36%Bookmakers 34%
Our track record
In 1,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 3,039 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 51%
Our track record
In 3,008 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 82%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 1,740 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 45%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 6,500 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Port Vale Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Port Vale 0–1 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 1,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.2% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Grimsby Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Grimsby Town 0–1 goals
Our model 70%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,261 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Port Vale vs Grimsby Town. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Port Vale–
Grimsby Town–Winner
12 70%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Port Vale–Grimsby Town–Winner
12 70%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Full Time
134%
X30%
236%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 35% | 65% | 62% | 38% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 72% | 28% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 72% | 28% |
| 34% | 66% | 70% | 30% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
125%
X45%
230%
1st Score
140%
X11%
249%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
22%
X-X
19%
1-1
17%
X-2
15%
X-1
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
14.0%
0-1
12.2%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Port Vale: shot-shy
4/7Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Grimsby Town: attack vs defence
League Two
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Port Vale: weak attack, good defence (1.13 xG, 1.04 xGA a game)
- Grimsby Town: good attack, good defence (1.70 xG, 1.14 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Grimsby Town form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesPort Vale are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- Port ValeBookmakers: 38% to win today. · 7 of 10 gamesWasteful · −5 goals−5.0
- Grimsby TownBookmakers: 34% to win today. · 9 of 10 gamesWasteful · −3 goals−3.6
Last 5 matches
Grimsby TownL
L
W
W
D
Port ValeL
W
L
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Port Vale 9th of 24 · Grimsby Town 2nd of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Grimsby Town: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredPort Vale games go over 2.5 goals less often than the League Two average (48%), Grimsby Town games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Port Vale1 of 7
Grimsby Town6 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Port Vale2 of 7
Grimsby Town6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 528 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Port Vale vs Grimsby Town corners, cards and goal times
League Two
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gamePort Vale: last 7 with these statsGrimsby Town: last 9 with these statsGrimsby Town score early
Port Vale
Grimsby Town
4.7
Corners won · league 4.9
7.0
4.6
Corners conceded · league 4.9
5.3
2.1
Cards · league 1.9
1.4
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
3.0
67%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
62%
0%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
15%
22%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
50%
22%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
0%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Grimsby Town2/5
Port Vale4/5
Both Teams to Score
Grimsby Town0/5
Port Vale2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Grimsby Town0/5
Port Vale3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Grimsby Town4/5
Port Vale4/5
First Half Result
Grimsby Town1/5
Port Vale4/5
Correct Score
Grimsby Town0/5
Port Vale1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction