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Rochdale vs Grimsby Town

Rochdale vs Grimsby Town 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)

Robbed

Grimsby Town drew despite more chances

Rochdale

2–2

Grimsby Town

1.7Chances (xG)2.5

On these chances Rochdale would usually take 1.0 points and Grimsby Town 1.9; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Grimsby Town.

Rochdale 0.0 pts vs chancesGrimsby Town −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rochdale vs Grimsby Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Grimsby Town had clearly more shots on target

Rochdale

Grimsby Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Rochdale and Grimsby Town ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Rochdale win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grimsby Town – York City prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Rochdale vs Grimsby Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Grimsby Town to win.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 28%

Our track record

In 1,070 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,707 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,964 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Rochdale Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,466 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Grimsby Town Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grimsby Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Grimsby Town 2+ goals.

Our model 64%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rochdale vs Grimsby Town 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rochdale vs Grimsby Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Rochdale2

Grimsby Town2

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

League Two - England

Rochdale2

Grimsby Town2

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

143%

X24%

233%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	21%	79%	44%	56%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	21%	79%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	31%	69%	64%	36%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%
	31%	69%	64%	36%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

131%

X41%

228%

1st Score

146%

X5%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

20%

X-X

15%

X-1

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

2-1

9.4%

1-0

8.5%

1-2

8.1%

0-1

7.6%

2-0

6.5%

2-2

5.7%

0-0

5.4%

3-1

4.6%

0-2

4.3%

3-0

3.7%

1-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Rochdale vs Grimsby Town — Recent Form

Rochdale have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table. Grimsby Town have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Rochdale

Grimsby Town

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Grimsby Town

2/5

Rochdale

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Grimsby Town

2/5

Rochdale

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Grimsby Town

2/5

Rochdale

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Grimsby Town

3/5

Rochdale

2/5

First Half Result

Grimsby Town

1/5

Rochdale

0/5

Correct Score

Grimsby Town

0/5

Rochdale

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grimsby Town – York City prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).