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Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra

Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)

Fair result

Exeter City

2–0

Crewe Alexandra

2.0Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Exeter City would usually take 1.9 points and Crewe Alexandra 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Exeter City.

Exeter City +1.1 pts vs chancesCrewe Alexandra −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Exeter City

Crewe Alexandra

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Exeter City and Crewe Alexandra ended 2-0. Our AI model predicted an Crewe Alexandra win at 36% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crewe Alexandra – Barnet prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crewe Alexandra to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Exeter City to win.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Exeter City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Exeter City 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Crewe Alexandra Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crewe Alexandra 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Exeter City2

Crewe Alexandra0

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

League Two - England

Exeter City2

Crewe Alexandra0

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

135%

X29%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	58%	42%	68%	32%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	33%	67%	69%	31%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	32%	68%	67%	33%	88%	12%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	33%	67%	69%	31%
	32%	68%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	88%	12%	97%	3%

1st Half

126%

X47%

226%

1st Score

145%

X9%

245%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

20%

X-X

19%

1-1

18%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.7%

0-1

11.0%

1-0

10.9%

0-0

9.5%

1-2

8.0%

2-1

7.5%

0-2

6.6%

2-0

6.1%

2-2

5.0%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Exeter City vs Crewe Alexandra — Recent Form

Exeter City have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Crewe Alexandra have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Exeter City

Crewe Alexandra

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Crewe Alexandra

3/5

Exeter City

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Crewe Alexandra

4/5

Exeter City

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Crewe Alexandra

3/5

Exeter City

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Crewe Alexandra

2/5

Exeter City

5/5

First Half Result

Crewe Alexandra

1/5

Exeter City

4/5

Correct Score

Crewe Alexandra

0/5

Exeter City

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crewe Alexandra – Barnet prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).