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Barnet vs Swindon Town

Barnet vs Swindon Town 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)

Smash-and-grab

Swindon Town won with less than half the chances

Barnet

1–3

Swindon Town

2.7Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Barnet would usually take 2.3 points and Swindon Town 0.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Barnet.

Barnet −2.3 pts vs chancesSwindon Town +2.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Barnet vs Swindon Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Barnet had more than twice the shots on target

Barnet

Swindon Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

72%

Possession

28%

The match between Barnet and Swindon Town ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Barnet win at 65% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Swindon Town – Rotherham United prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Barnet vs Swindon Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Barnet to win

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,474 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,965 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Barnet ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 4,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Barnet Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Barnet 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Swindon Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swindon Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 81%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Barnet vs Swindon Town 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Barnet vs Swindon Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Barnet1

Swindon Town3

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

· FT

League Two - England

Barnet1

Swindon Town3

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

165%

X20%

215%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	21%	79%	43%	57%	56%	44%	78%	22%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	21%	79%	43%	57%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	56%	44%	78%	22%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	40%	60%	66%	34%	84%	16%
	51%	49%	81%	19%	95%	5%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	40%	60%
	51%	49%	81%	19%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	66%	34%	84%	16%
	95%	5%	99%	1%

1st Half

149%

X36%

214%

1st Score

167%

X6%

227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

43%

X-1

21%

X-X

11%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

11.3%

2-0

10.2%

2-1

10.1%

1-1

9.6%

3-0

8.0%

3-1

6.5%

0-0

5.5%

0-1

4.5%

1-2

4.3%

2-2

4.2%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Barnet vs Swindon Town — Recent Form

Barnet have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Swindon Town have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Barnet

Swindon Town

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Barnet

2/5

Swindon Town

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Barnet

5/5

Swindon Town

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Barnet

2/5

Swindon Town

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Barnet

2/5

Swindon Town

4/5

First Half Result

Barnet

1/5

Swindon Town

1/5

Correct Score

Barnet

1/5

Swindon Town

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Swindon Town – Rotherham United prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).