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Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2025 (Round 16)

Fair result
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto

2–2

Atlético NacionalAtlético Nacional
1.9Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Deportivo Pasto would usually take 1.5 points and Atlético Nacional 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Nacional.

Deportivo Pasto −0.5 pts vs chancesAtlético Nacional −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Deportivo Pasto

Atlético Nacional

5

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

1

3

Corners

4

8

Yellow cards

0

0

Red cards

1

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Deportivo Pasto and Atlético Nacional ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Atlético Nacional win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Nacional – Independiente Medellín prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Nacional to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Deportivo Pasto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Pasto 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 831 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Atlético Nacional Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Nacional 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Atlético Nacional 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Pasto vs Atlético Nacional. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
Deportivo PastoDeportivo Pasto2
Atlético NacionalAtlético Nacional2

Winner

2 50%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

123%
X27%
250%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportivo Pasto42%58%76%24%
Atlético Nacional22%78%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportivo Pasto94%6%99%1%
Atlético Nacional81%19%94%6%

1st Half

121%
X45%
235%

1st Score

135%
X9%
256%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

X-X

19%

X-2

19%

1-1

11%

X-1

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

12.8%

1-1

12.2%

1-2

9.9%

0-2

9.2%

0-0

8.8%

1-0

7.8%

2-1

6.0%

2-2

5.1%

1-3

4.7%

0-3

4.5%

2-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Nacional – Independiente Medellín prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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