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Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 14)

Smash-and-grab

Jaguares de Córdoba won with less than half the chances

Jaguares de Córdoba

3–2

Deportes Tolima

0.9Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Jaguares de Córdoba would usually take 0.7 points and Deportes Tolima 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportes Tolima.

Jaguares de Córdoba +2.3 pts vs chancesDeportes Tolima −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Jaguares de Córdoba

Deportes Tolima

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Jaguares de Córdoba and Deportes Tolima ended 3-2. Our AI model predicted an Deportes Tolima win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Deportivo Pereira – Jaguares de Córdoba prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima to win

Wrong

Our model 37%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,096 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,843 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,636 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Deportes Tolima ahead at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 548 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Jaguares de Córdoba Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Jaguares de Córdoba 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 67%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,662 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Deportes Tolima Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Deportes Tolima 2+ goals.

Our model 66%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 134 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 65–70%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Jaguares de Córdoba3

Deportes Tolima2

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

· FT

Liga BetPlay - Colombia

Jaguares de Córdoba3

Deportes Tolima2

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

136%

X27%

237%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	67%	33%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	67%	33%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	31%	69%	66%	34%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	31%	69%	66%	34%	88%	12%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	31%	69%	66%	34%
	31%	69%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	88%	12%	97%	3%

1st Half

127%

X46%

227%

1st Score

145%

X9%

246%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

19%

2-2

19%

1-1

18%

X-2

15%

X-1

14%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

0-1

10.3%

1-0

10.3%

1-2

8.9%

0-0

8.7%

2-1

8.6%

0-2

6.1%

2-0

6.0%

2-2

5.1%

1-3

3.3%

3-1

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportes Tolima — Recent Form

Jaguares de Córdoba have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table. Deportes Tolima have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Jaguares de Córdoba

Deportes Tolima

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Deportes Tolima

1/5

Jaguares de Córdoba

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Deportes Tolima

5/5

Jaguares de Córdoba

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Deportes Tolima

2/5

Jaguares de Córdoba

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Deportes Tolima

4/5

Jaguares de Córdoba

3/5

First Half Result

Deportes Tolima

2/5

Jaguares de Córdoba

4/5

Correct Score

Deportes Tolima

0/5

Jaguares de Córdoba

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Deportivo Pereira – Jaguares de Córdoba prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).