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Monterrey vs Guadalajara

Monterrey vs Guadalajara 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 14)

Fair result

Monterrey

0–1

Guadalajara

1.4Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Monterrey would usually take 1.3 points and Guadalajara 1.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Monterrey.

Monterrey −1.3 pts vs chancesGuadalajara +1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Monterrey vs Guadalajara stats: how the match was played

Liga MX

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Guadalajara had clearly more shots on target

Monterrey

Guadalajara

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Monterrey and Guadalajara ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Monterrey win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monterrey – Tijuana prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Monterrey vs Guadalajara — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga MX

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monterrey to win

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,630 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.6% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,749 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,186 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Monterrey Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monterrey 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Guadalajara Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Guadalajara 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,321 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Monterrey vs Guadalajara 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Monterrey vs Guadalajara. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Monterrey0

Guadalajara1

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Liga MX - Mexico

Monterrey0

Guadalajara1

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

141%

X25%

233%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	61%	39%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	33%	67%	65%	35%	86%	14%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	59%	41%
	33%	67%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	86%	14%	96%	4%

1st Half

128%

X43%

228%

1st Score

145%

X7%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

21%

1-1

19%

X-X

15%

X-1

13%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-0

9.4%

2-1

8.9%

0-1

7.8%

1-2

7.8%

2-0

7.1%

0-0

6.7%

2-2

5.5%

0-2

5.1%

3-1

4.0%

3-0

3.7%

1-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Monterrey vs Guadalajara — Recent Form

Guadalajara have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. Monterrey have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Guadalajara

Monterrey

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Guadalajara

1/5

Monterrey

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Guadalajara

2/5

Monterrey

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Guadalajara

1/5

Monterrey

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Guadalajara

5/5

Monterrey

3/5

First Half Result

Guadalajara

1/5

Monterrey

2/5

Correct Score

Guadalajara

2/5

Monterrey

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monterrey – Tijuana prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).